Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Fairbanks (AFG) · issued Sunday, July 26 at 2:26 PM AKDT.
Revised in 21 passages since the 1:45 AM discussion. See every revision.
Synopsis
Precipitation has already spread across to the eastern North Slope & the eastern Brooks Range of Alaska and will continue shifting southeast this afternoon into tonight and Monday. This front brings a band of steady precipitation that lasts roughly 12-15 hours at any one location and an unseasonably cold airmass that allows for accumulating snow potential north of the Arctic Circle. Snow chances are greatest along the northern slopes of the Brooks Range, especially at elevations above roughly 1000 ft where temperatures quickly cool below freezing during the snowfall. This includes a stretch of the Dalton Highway between Atigun Pass and Sagwon where locally up to 6 inches of snow is possible, which will likely to result in hazardous travel. Saturated upslope flow continues as deeper moisture/snowfall depart, which may result in a period of snow showers and pockets of freezing drizzle lasting through tonight. This front brings breezy winds, scattered rain showers, and a few isolated thunderstorms to the remainder of northern Alaska through Monday. Drier conditions and a warming trend return ahead of the next cold front that tracks across the state as we go into Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the second front, conditions look to trend warmer and drier heading into next weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds-in from the west with some light isolated showers primarily confined to the coast where they will be experiencing onshore flow.
Messages
Mostly clear skies into this afternoon have allowed temperatures to warm into the 60s to low 70s.
A cold front continues to track southeastward across the Interior into Monday. A few isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front with scattered showers, wind gusts to around 20 to 30 mph, and cooler temperatures expected heading into Monday. Winds will peak this afternoon and evening ahead of the front.
Rainfall totals into Monday are expected to remain light overall, with amounts greater than 0.10" most likely nearer to the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. A few afternoon thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially across the southeast Interior on Monday.
A brief warming and drying period sets in for Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the 60s to low 70s ahead of another cold front moving southeastward across the Interior late Wednesday into Thursday with isolated rain showers and breezy winds.
Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend, as highs return to the 70s to low 80s.
Temperatures have trended cooler today as a cold front tracks southeastward from the Chukchi Sea across western Alaska through tonight with scattered rain showers and breezy northwest winds.
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