What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Fairbanks (AFG) · issued Thursday, November 12 at 2:36 PM AKST.
Revised in 12 passages since the 5:12 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Fairly quiet weather will continue across the Interior through the weekend, with daily chances of light flurries and minimal accumulations.
Temperatures near normal or slightly above are expected through the weekend with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. Coldest spots will drop below zero.
Northeast winds will ramp up Friday night into Saturday, especially across higher elevations and northern Interior with gusts up to around 30 to 40 mph. Winds diminish on Monday
Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue through the weekend, with light accumulations expected.
A period of more organized snow is possible for the Nulato Hills and Kobuk Valley on Saturday, resulting in modest snow accumulations of 2-4 inches, with more in areas of higher elevation.
Temperatures will hold steady to finish the week, with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the teens and 20s.
Short Term
A 531 decameter high will be the driver of our relatively active pattern throughout the period. The high interacting with a weak 510 decameter low located near the Chukotka Peninsula will create a trough extending from Siberia eastward over Northern Alaska. The strong upper level high and this trough will create a near 40 mb surface pressure gradient over a near 800 mile area to the North Slope. This will lead to wind gusts as high as 40 mph throughout the rest of the week along the North Slope. By Saturday morning, the Arctic high is expected to strengthen to 534 decameters, therefore increasing the wind gusts along the North Slope to near 60 mph throughout the day on Saturday. The high is expected to stay at this strength throughout the rest of the period, but shift slightly to the west late Sunday into Monday, allowing for the gusty winds to diminish slightly to near 45 mph. As this is happening, low pressure systems will travel eastward south of the trough that is over Northern Alaska. This will effectively allow constant upper-level troughing over the state throughout the period. As these lows travel east, associated pieces of shortwave energy will travel north, allowing for isolated snow showers to persist at least through the week. There is expected to be a slight lull in snow showers Friday into Saturday before a more organized front will move through the North Slope Saturday night into Sunday, likely increasing snow chances yet again. Overall 1 to 3 inches are expected across the North Slope through Sunday night. As we have seen for the past few days, these gusty winds in combination with light snow showers will continue to lead to periods of reduced visibility and even blizzard-like conditions at times.
Elsewhere across Northern Alaska will remain fairly quiet with isolated snow showers possible. The 510 decameter low near Siberia is expected to remain relatively stationary throughout the period, bringing constant isolated shower to the West Coast as pockets of shortwave energy pass through. Several rounds of low pressure systems are expected to move into the Gulf and continue to travel eastward south of this low, though as they do, they're expected to bring wrap-around moisture, especially on Saturday. By Saturday morning, a more organized front will move northward through the Interior, giving areas their highest chance of snowfall in a while. Accompanying this front will be gusty winds, creating the potential for visibility to decrease to below a mile at times for the Dalton Highway Summits and areas east. The front will reach the southern Brooks Range by Saturday evening, with up to 2 inches of snow accumulation possible across the Interior. By Sunday, a weakening low in the Gulf will travel north towards Southcentral Alaska, pushing energy and moisture towards the West Coast and Western Interior through Sunday with the highest snow accumulations expected to be in the higher terrain with lighter accumulations in the valleys.
Long Term
An overall quiet weather pattern is likely as we move into the extended period, with mostly snow showers and gusty winds expected. Starting Monday, a low will track northwest across the eastern Gulf Coastline, while a separate low pressure system trends southeastward from the Bering Sea to the Gulf. These two storms will work in tandem to send another round of snow showers throughout Northern Alaska through Tuesday, with the current the European model model guidance suggesting that the bulk of snow will be focused towards the West Coast/Western Interior during this time.
Following this, another low will approach Alaska through the Bering Sea on Wednesday. Currently, models are struggling to agree on a track for this storm, as each run suggests a slightly different solution for the synoptic scale features that drive this systems path. Based on the most recent the European model ensemble model guidance, we have growing confidence that the Arctic high north of Alaska will strengthen as the Bering Sea storm approaches, which as a result, will force the system to move southeasterly away from our area. However regardless of the track this storms takes, we are only expecting minor impacts in the form of light isolated to scattered snow showers, and gusty winds for the YK-Delta/Alaska Range throughout the end of the extended period.
Coastal Hazard Potential. No coastal hazards are expected through the forecast time frame.
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