What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Fairbanks (AFG) · issued Friday, September 11 at 5:54 AM AKDT.
Revised in 28 passages since the 2:49 PM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Central and Eastern Interior. Temperatures warm this afternoon into the upper 50s to low/mid 60s behind a passing warm front before gradually cooling again into the low/mid 50s by Sunday behind a incoming cold front.
Another wave of moderate to heavy precipitation will push into the Interior Friday night into Saturday morning as a cold front associated with the Chukchi Sea low moves eastward. Storm total rainfall amounts through Sunday afternoon will range from 0.50" to 1.50" but due to an abundance of moisture with this front, locally higher amounts are possible.
By early next week, another low is expected to move into the Bering Sea and bring additional chances for rain and gusty winds across the Central/Southern Interior. Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes up to 40 mph are possible but remain uncertain for now.
West Coast and Western Interior. As a low in the Chukchi Sea continues to move eastward this morning, widespread rain and gusty winds will impact Western Alaska through the weekend. Coastal impacts such as high surf and localized beach erosion are expected.
High Surf Advisories remain in effect through tonight along the coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina for water level rises around 2 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line.
High Wind Warnings were cancelled this morning for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait but will continue to see stronger winds through this afternoon.
Synopsis
A strong low in the Chukchi Sea will continue to push east today bringing widespread rain and gusty winds to Western Alaska. Coastal impacts such as high surf and localized beach erosion are expected along the coastline from Hooper Bay to Wainwright through Saturday afternoon. As a cold front associated with this system moves east across the state today, moderate to heavy rains will shift eastward and stall over the Interior this weekend. Although no flooding is expected, storm total rainfall amounts will range from 0.50" to 1.00", with locally higher amounts possible. By the start of next week, another low pressure system moves into the Bering Sea bringing additional chances for widespread rain and gusty winds across Northern Alaska.
Short Term
The forecast continues to remain on track as the low previously over Siberia has now moved into the Chukchi Sea. This system will bring widespread rain and gusty winds to Western Alaska today through Saturday, with more widespread rain and gusty winds shifting east into the Interior later this weekend. With this low in the Chukchi Sea and the North Pacific High sitting over the Alaska Peninsula, a strong southwesterly pressure gradient drapes over the West Coast. This set up will allow for an influx of moisture to funnel into the West Coast via an atmospheric river this weekend. Rainfall amounts ranging from 0.25" to 1.00" are expected regionwide with the highest rainfall totals expected in the Southern Seward Peninsula, south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and Kobuk, Noatak, and Wulik River Valleys. In these areas, rainfall totals will range from 1.50" to 2.50" with locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" possible across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow. Coastal impacts such as high surf and localized beach erosion are expected through Saturday along the coastline from Hooper Bay to Wainwright. Water levels will rise anywhere from 2 to 5 feet above the highest high tide line before gradually returning to near normal levels Saturday through Monday. High Surf Advisories remain in effect through early Saturday morning with a High Wind Warning remaining in effect for the Lisburne Peninsula through this afternoon.
A cold front associated with the Chukchi Sea low will continue to push east across the state today reaching the Central Interior later this evening. As this front stalls over the Southern Interior/Alaska Range this weekend, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected. Storm total rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50" to 1.00" is likely with locally higher amounts possible. Although no flooding is expected to follow these rains, rapid water level rises in the smaller creeks, streams, and tributaries from Denali Park to the White Mountains are possible. This cold front will also work to cool temperatures back down into the low to mid 50s this weekend as well as keep west/southwest winds fairly strong through Sunday afternoon.
Farther north, conditions will remain cool and wet across the North Slope as the Chukchi Sea low continues tracking east into the Beaufort Sea through Sunday. Besides the continuous rainfall, models are picking up on a signal for a low-levl coastal jet to develop along the coastline Sunday into Monday. Should this feature come in to fruition, a strong winds headline may be needed for winds gusting upwards of 50 mph. Confidence remains low on this for now, but we will continue to monitor its development through the weekend.
Long Term
At the start of the extended period, another low begins to move into the Bering Sea Monday morning. As this low moves north, it pushes the North Pacific High farther south and east into the Gulf of Alaska. Model guidance was in good agreement yesterday regarding this new low's track, however has recently started to shift towards a more westerly solution. Should this scenario play out, the low will graze the YK Delta coastline to the east and move north into Norton Sound towards Nome. This track could allow for heavier rains and winds to impact the Seward Peninsula Tuesday into Wednesday. However, previous model guidance was leaning more towards this low making landfall over the YK Delta and tracking northeast through the Western Interior. Given that guidance is currently favoring the latter, we will be keeping an extra close eye for any potential coastal impacts that may develop as a result of a more westerly storm track. Despite this, impacts should still be fairly marginal in nature. A more significant impact to note from this pattern will be a tightening pressure gradient over the Alaska Range leading to strong southerly gap winds through the passes Tuesday morning/afternoon. Model guidance seems a bit "bullish" on these winds right now, hinting at winds reaching High Wind Warning criteria (70 mph) fairly quickly. Confidence regarding that outcome is low for now, but we will continue to monitor this over the next few days. Otherwise, as this low moves inland widespread showers will return to Western Alaska and parts of the Interior through midweek. There's quite a bit of model disagreement on what happens to this low once in moves inland, with some hinting at it fizzling out over the central portion of the state while others have it getting roped into a shortwave pattern over the Brooks Range. Either way, weather conditions will continue to be cool and wet for the foreseeable future across much of Northern Alaska.
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