Buffalo (BUF) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

What has changed

Minor changes with this forecast update.

Messages

Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend with at least periodic chances for some showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

A brief period of cool and dry weather is expected on Monday, before unsettled weather arrives mid-week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1. Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend with at least periodic chances for some showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Surface high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast through tonight. Clearing skies and calm winds will likely result in patchy to areas of fog early this morning. Most of the fog will be confined to valley locations inland from Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Fog will erode shortly after daybreak this morning, and dry and calm weather will continue across the forecast area through tonight.

Increasing southerly flow on the backside of the departing surface high will bring warmer and more humid weather into the forecast area Saturday. Dewpoint temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to upper 60s across western NY by Saturday afternoon. The upper level pattern suggests that a shortwave trough may move from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast. The combination a warm and moist airmass ahead of an advancing trough will support increasing chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Ensemble guidance suggests that the highest probability of rain will be from the western Southern Tier to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Heavy downpours are possible in any thunderstorms.

A cold front associated with low pressure near Hudson Bay is expected to move across the forecast area late Saturday night through Sunday. The plume of deep moisture will be exiting to the east, and chances of showers and a few storms are higher across the eastern lake Ontario region Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2. A brief period of cool and dry weather is expected on Monday, before unsettled weather arrives mid-week.

An upper level trough will dig across the Northeast Monday, with surface high pressure building across the area. A cool, northwest flow will move into the forecast area with mean 850mb temperatures falling to around +7C by Monday afternoon. Because the airmass is very dry, little lake response is expected. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s.