What has changed
Increased probability of showers and thunderstorms across western NY this evening.
What is an Area Forecast Discussion?
Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 3 passages since the 2:35 PM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and localized gusty winds.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms linger into Thursday, with drier conditions for the end of the work week.
Discussion
Key Message 1. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and localized gusty winds.
Surface analysis shows low pressure over northern Wisconsin with a warm front extending south into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Deep convection exists near Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. Closer to home, ridging remains across the Northeast with light winds aloft. Daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid 60s will support diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across the terrain and inland from the lakes this afternoon.
The surface low is expected to move across the central Great Lakes tonight. A corridor of increasing mid-level winds, steepening mid- level lapse rates, and high PWATS will move into the Ohio Valley and parts of western NY late tonight. Mean 0-6km wind shear will increase to 20-30 knots across far western NY, remaining less than 20 knots east of the Genesee Valley. The storm motion of the ongoing organized convection across the Central Great Lakes is expected to move south, and stay west of the forecast area, however additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the surface low approaches the region tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across western NY through Tuesday morning. Conditions are marginally favorable for an isolated severe thunderstorm across far western NY tonight, with gusty winds and heavy rain as the main hazards.
The surface low is expected to track across western NY Tuesday, then become nearly stationary across north-central NY Tuesday night through Wednesday. Showers will taper off across far western NY Tuesday morning. daily heating within a very moist environment will support additional showers and thunderstorms during peak heating. A low level jet will wrap around the low and a few strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding across parts of the Finger Lakes region and north-central NY Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. As the low spins across northern New York Tuesday night, wrap around moisture will support chances for showers across western NY overnight. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of western and north-central NY through Wednesday.
Expect a cool Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s, 60s across the higher terrain.
Key Message 2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into Thursday, with drier conditions for the end of the work week.
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. The full Plaincast experience — plain-English summaries beside the annotated original, with the forecast changelog — loads automatically with JavaScript, or open the interactive edition.