What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 3 passages since the 1:27 AM discussion. See every revision.
Hot and mostly dry conditions into Monday.
Heavy smoke settles across the region today, reductions to visibility and air quality are possible.
Isolated strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph.
Low risk (10-30%) of daily thunderstorms through the middle of the week.
Lingering showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way east this morning, with the main impacts being gusty winds in the 40 to 50 mph range.
Models are depicting heavy smoke settling across the region today, with reductions to visibility depicted. Areas of smoke have been introduced to the forecast. This could limit maximum daytime heating and diminish the lowest extent of minimum humidity values. Take necessary precautions if you have vulnerabilities to smoke.
Hot and mostly dry conditions persist the rest of today, with high temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100sF. Heat Advisories continue across southern Montana and portions of northern Wyoming through this evening. Extreme Heat Warnings continue through Monday evening from for counties east of and including Rosebud.
An additional wave will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. Storms do not look to be all too strong, though inverted-V soundings indicate the chance for strong and erratic wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall. Minimum relative humidity values will be low, in the teens and 20s percent. Look for widespread elevated fire weather conditions, though weaker winds will help mitigate worse fire weather conditions.
Ridging largely continues through much of the week, with highs in the 90s to low 100sF. There looks to be low chances (10-40 percent) for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the week, with the main concerns being gusty winds and brief heavy rain. precipitable water values remain above normal through at least Wednesday, 100-150% above normal before dropping next weekend.
A pattern change may come about early next week, as a few models depict a potential ridge crasher. This could finally bring high temperatures down towards normals, in the 80sF. Continue to monitor the forecast as we progress through the week.
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