What has changed
Key Message 1 and 2 were updated. The Aviation section was updated.
What is an Area Forecast Discussion?
Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 2 passages since the 6:19 PM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.
2) Dangerous heat and humidity will impact Southeast Georgia and Southeast South Carolina through the middle of the week.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.
High resolution guidance indicates that a squall line will develop over NC ahead of cold front Tuesday afternoon. This line should track rapidly to the SE, with the southern portion of the line expected to reach the Charleston Tri-county during the evening hours. These storms may not arrive over Berkley and Dorchester Counties until after sunset Tuesday evening. Instability across the forecast should begin to decrease in storms should decrease in intensity. However, if storms outpace the guidance, then the risk of severe weather will increase significantly. At this time, one or two of these storms may remain organized with decent structure, these storms could produce swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerous heat and humidity will impact Southeast Georgia and Southeast South Carolina through the middle of the week.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Strong mid-level ridging continues over the Rockies and Plains through mid-week, with the eastern periphery building into the southeastern CONUS. Meanwhile, at the surface, will also see a weak high pressure develop over the southeast, causing oppressive heat to persist. In regard to temperatures, currently have highs soaring into the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, with the highest values occurring along the coastal corridor behind the sea breeze. With minimal precipitation chances in place, believe heat index values up to 110 degrees will prevail long enough in both extent and duration to warrant headlines. Thus, after collaboration with neighbors, have issued an area wide Heat Advisory that will be in effect Tuesday between 11-7 PM. Some areas could approach or even exceed Extreme Heat Warning criteria within the coastal corridor, so monitoring for a possible upgrade.
Similar conditions look likely Wednesday, though an advancing front may possibly limit the extent/duration of heat. For now, have afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, with the highest occurring along the coastal corridor again. Will continue to monitor trends in regard to the aforementioned front, but additional headlines may eventually be needed as heat index values approach 110 degrees.
We encourage folks to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade or AC, and to check on vulnerable populations like children and elderly.
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