Cleveland (CLE) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

What has changed

The forecast largely remains on track and no major changes were needed with this update.

Messages

Lake effect showers are expected through the weekend. A rain/snow mix is likely tonight with light snow accumulations possible in spots.

Dry weather will return early next week with temperatures rising above normal.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1. The gloomy weather pattern will continue as cyclonic flow aloft persists over the northeastern CONUS through much of the weekend. The current round of lake effect rain showers will largely taper off through early this morning before shower coverage increases as the next piece of energy pivots across the region later this morning into this afternoon. By Friday night, steering flow will shift to the northwest and focus the precipitation into Northeast Ohio. There will be plenty of lake-induced instability with lake temperatures right around 13C and 850mb temperatures likely falling to around -6C tonight, so precipitation rates may be efficient at times. Expect rain as the primary ptype through early this evening before mixing with and possibly even transitioning to snow after 7 PM/00Z tonight. The main challenge with the forecast is how cold temperatures get overnight tonight; northwest flow off of the (relatively) warm lake will most likely keep temperatures just above freezing. With that in mind, snow will likely struggle to accumulate. The current forecast has a trace to roughly half an inch across the Central Highlands and into the secondary snowbelt areas of interior NE OH/NW PA with locally higher amounts of around an inch possible. A few high res models suggest that higher amounts of at least a couple inches are possible where bands of snow persist, especially in the event of a Lake Huron moisture connection, but there is a great deal of uncertainty in where exactly that could occur since it will probably be very isolated. Will need to keep an eye on guidance trends, especially forecast overnight temperatures trend even a couple of degrees cooler. Either way, impacts to travel aren't expected at this point since wet snow accumulations will largely be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces.

precipitation will transition back to rain during the day Saturday as temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s and rain chances will likely increase across NW PA during this time. A few wet snowflakes may mix with rain in NW PA late Saturday night, but a cold rain is generally favored as the upper trough slowly starts to push east of the area and 850mb temperatures increase. Expect precipitation to gradually dwindle throughout the day Thursday as 850mb moisture decreases and a ridge starts building in from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2. High pressure will build into the region by early next week with dry weather expected Monday onwards. Temperatures will slowly increase throughout the week as the high gradually shifts east with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Monday giving way to above normal mid to upper 50s by Thursday.