Kansas City (EAX) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Kansas City (EAX) · issued Friday, November 13 at 5:30 AM CST.

Revised in 3 passages since the 2:34 AM discussion. See every revision.

Messages

Temperatures swing below normal for the weekend with sub freezing lows tonight into Monday (and Tuesday for central and eastern MO).

A hard freeze is expected early Saturday morning as lows dip into the 20s.

Temperatures warm back above seasonal averages mid to late next week.

Forecast remains dry through much of the period with the next substantial chance for rainfall being next weekend.

Discussion

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a trough ridge trough pattern east to west across the central CONUS. The sinusoidal nature of the overall flow is a broad contributor to the rollercoaster ride of temperatures that are expected through the period. Northerly flow continues to dominate the short term forecast with cool Canadian air advecting into the region. High temperatures only look to reach the upper 40s across the area. Points near La Cygne and Butler may touch 50F. As the surface high continues to sag southwards, winds look to keep conditions a bit brisk, but nowhere near the extend we saw the past 2 days (although temperatures were much warmer).

The peak of this cool stretch comes tonight into Saturday morning as the center of the surface high slowly migrated through southern IA. Light surface winds as well as a combination of cold air advection aloft (limiting an inversion) and clear skies allow strong nighttime cooling which lowers overnight temperatures to the 20s with at 20-30 percent chance that portions of central and northeast MO could dip into the upper teens.

Sub freezing lows continue through much of the weekend with portions of central and eastern MO seeing lows < 32F through Tuesday morning. Late in the weekend, the trough currently situated across the western CONUS begins to migrate eastward. As it does so, a lee trough at low levels advects some warmer air from the southern CONUS northward pushing temperatures back upward to the 50s. Midweek a subsequent trough and preceding ridge enter the central CONUS. Flow opens up from the desert SW and the Gulf which when combined with the tighten pressure gradient between these systems vaults warm air northward. The result is another period of warmer than seasonal temperatures with highs for the tail end of next week reaching the 60s. If we flip the parameters of the forecast temperature ensembles around they show a 10-20 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 70F which may not be a lot, but is more than one would expect this late into November.

The warm temperatures next week are welcome as that looks to be the next opportunity for precipitation across the region. Extended guidance hints at a fairly interesting situation developing particularly in the midlevel where an expansive high across the eastern CONUS and a low across the west create a tight pressure gradient across the intermountain west. This compression of warm air and moisture flow combined with the exit region of an upper level trough shows the potential for the development of and expansive area of precipitation across the central CONUS Friday. However, much of the activity looks to remain west of our area. Additional ejecting shortwaves from the trough through next weekend bring opportunities for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. Of course, several uncertainties remain and guidance does tend to spatially broad brush chance of rain the further out in time they run. We will have to see how the pattern evolves over the next several days.

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