El Paso (EPZ) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

Messages

Drier air will diminish thunderstorm chances today and Saturday, with temperatures climbing several degrees above normal again.

Moisture will return for much of next week, with thunderstorm chances spreading west to east.

Discussion

WV imagery showing upper high center over the Sonoran Desert. Polar jet has impinged somewhat toward our area but remaining north. Within and under the high, recycled moisture persists over Arizona and southern New Mexico. Satellite and KEPZ sounding show PWs around 1.2 inches this afternoon. PW trend for Friday and the weekend is to shed about another .2-.3 inches as the upper high moves from far western New Mexico Friday to the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday. This will tend to push any existing moisture further west. Thus low chance of rain will continue but mainly for the mountains and areas west of the RG Valley. Temperatures will also be warmest during this period with lowland highs approaching 100 degrees.

Monday and Tuesday. moisture continues to increase as upper high allows increasing southerly flow aloft. PWs approach 1.3-1.4 inches. Expect rain chances all areas to increase significantly, with low/moderate flood risk. Main upper high almost as far east as the Carolinas by Tuesday. Despite this good location for moisture advection, the European model continues to be a bit more bearish with rain as the upper ridge out of the high continues to nose westward over New Mexico. However either solution looks promising.

Wednesday into next weekend. upper high generally begins drifting west again, likely forcing much of the moisture west toward the Arizona line. The one interesting feature toward the end of this period is the possibility of a polar jet short wave dropping into New Mexico Saturday. This would briefly bring the moisture plume east again across the forecast area, with some severe storm potential. Still a long ways out though.