What the forecast actually says
Loading…
Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 5 passages since the 11:40 AM discussion. See every revision.
Hot temperatures persisting through the rest of July and into early August. Lowland highs 100 to 105 each afternoon, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.
Thunderstorm chances will remain highest over the high elevations and Southwest New Mexico into next week. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding will be possible each afternoon and evening.
A heavy dome of high pressure remains over southwest CONUS today and is expected to throughout the next several days at least. There still remains good moisture underneath the dome, with precipitable water values likely to get at or above 0.9-1.0" today through the next several days. This sets the stage for continued thunderstorm development over the high terrain early each afternoon, drifting off into the lower elevation areas mid to late afternoon. The threat for locally heavy rainfall remains with these storms, as they are likely to be slow moving with efficient rainfall rates. Areas in the Gila Region and the Sacramento Mountains are close to saturation based on satellite-derived soil moisture, while areas from Las Cruces to Deming to El Paso and south along the Rio Grande are very dry. Both ends of the soil moisture spectrum can lead to flooding issues with efficient rainfall rates should a storm form in these areas. While there are low precipitation chances in the lowlands near the US- Mexico border each day, a few colliding outflow boundaries in the area may develop an isolated storm (low confidence).
Another feature of this high pressure are the consistent hot temperatures across the lower elevations. Repeated days of 100F or greater high temperatures, combined with high 70s to even low 80s low temperatures will increase the risk of heat-related impacts and illnesses. A Heat Advisory was issued for Monday for areas along the Rio Grande Valley in our TX forecast areas, including the El Paso metro area. There is rather high confidence that these areas will see future Heat Advisories as well, given the high likelihood of these temperatures persisting throughout the next several days.
Not much change in the overall weather pattern is expected throughout much of this week. The center of the high pressure is likely to slowly meander its way westward towards AZ, but will not do much to drastically change the conditions. Expecting the daily thunderstorm chances and hot temperatures to continue throughout the next several days, just perhaps a slight change in storm motion each day.
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. The full Plaincast experience — plain-English summaries beside the annotated original, with the forecast changelog — loads automatically with JavaScript, or open the interactive edition.