Atlanta (FFC) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening today and tomorrow. A few storms may become strong to severe this afternoon, capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts.

Temperatures will remain above seasonal norms through the weekend, with afternoon heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.

Short Term

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Over the course of the day today, a shortwave traversing otherwise largely quasi-zonal flow at the mid-levels will approach the state from the northwest. The combination of this (and an attendant frontal boundary) and a steady stream of moist, southwesterly flow around the Bermuda High at the surface will support the development of waves of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. precipitable water are progged to surge north of 2" -- well exceeding the 90th percentile climatologically, and perhaps even daily maximums. Simulated model sounding profiles are rather saturated with unimpressive mid-level lapse rates and near-negligble shear, but ample instability lends itself to chances for isolated severe potential in especially strong water-loaded downdrafts/wet microbursts. Overall rainfall totals remain low for today (up to three-quarters of an inch), but a high precipitable water environment with chances for training/multiple rounds of heavy rainfall means at least an outside chance for localized flash flooding concerns. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, just a bit lower than yesterday owing to increased convective coverage for many.

Saturday will be a near-carbon copy of today with no major changes to the main contributors to the forecast expected. Scattered to numerous (and perhaps even widespread) showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon, and may continue overnight tonight into Saturday morning. At least patchy fog is likely to be around during the morning, but coverage is highly dependent on lingering overnight convection (which has a tendency to provide sufficient mixing to prevent lowest visibilities). Highs during the afternoon are likely to be a tick lower for areas along and north of I-85, peaking in the mid-80s to lower 90s.

Long Term

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Deep moisture from the Gulf will remain in place across the forecast area and much of the Southeast as the long term period begins on Saturday. As the axis of a mid level trough moves across the Appalachians, it will continue to nudge a weakening frontal boundary through the far northern tier. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue in portions of north and west Georgia in the vicinity of this front, though coverage will be far less widespread then Saturday afternoon with the loss of daytime instability. Low temperatures on Sunday morning will range from the upper 60s to low 70s, which will be very close to dewpoints. With light winds and a nearly saturated airmass, areas of fog will be possible as the morning begins. During the daytime, the aforementioned trough (and a developing surface low) will lift northeast into the Atlantic, causing the frontal boundary to lose support and stall across northern Georgia, where it will eventually wash out.

Scattered afternoon pulse thunderstorms are expected on Sunday, though there will be a local maximum (40-50% chance) in coverage closer to where the stalled boundary ends up. Organized severe weather is not expected given a lack of shear and deep moisture through the atmospheric column, though ample daily instability will allow for a few storms to become strong. Such storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and bursts of heavy rain. With lesser precipitation and cloud coverage on Sunday compared to Saturday, temperatures are expected to rebound by a couple of degrees, warming into the low to mid 90s in all but the far northeastern mountains. With dewpoints remaining in the 70s, heat index values will climb into the low to mid 100s in areas south of I- 85 and in the upper 90s in areas to the north in the peak heating hours.

There will be little change in the airmass during the early parts of next week, with humid conditions and above normal temperatures combining for heat indices exceeding 100 across the majority of the area Monday through Wednesday. A ridge moving across the eastern CONUS on Monday will help suppress convection across the majority of the area, with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms currently forecast in areas of south-central Georgia. The axis of the ridge will begin to shift northeast of the forecast area on Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to a slight rebound in thunderstorm chances. In a moist and unstable airmass but in the absence of any surface forcing mechanisms, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.