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Heat Advisory for much of eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota Today and additionally for portions of northwest Minnesota on Sunday.

Extreme Heat Warning for the central and southern Red River Valley Sunday.

There is a threat for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northwest Minnesota today and Sunday with a primary threat for up to golf ball sized hail.

Discussion

Clusters depict strong agreement in the synoptic evolution through midweek before uncertainty increases with the placement and magnitude of the ridge centered over New Mexico. By Thursday ridge rider activity could resume though most machine learning guidance keeps activity more along the high plains rather than this far east, something to monitor. At the same time we above normal temperatures continue through much of the workweek with widespread upper 80s to low 90s into next weekend, several days will feature highs in the mid to upper 90s primarily in the Red River Valley. Along with the hot temperatures will be low humidity (30%) that could lead near critical fire weather at times through the week.

A marginal risk is in place across far northwest/north central Minnesota this afternoon with a slight risk across all of northwest Minnesota Sunday. For todays threat the risk is quite conditional with a boundary draped NW to SE across North Dakota. This will continue to move east across the state this afternoon/evening will the storm risk on the northern periphery. A stout post sunset cap will favor any storms to be elevated with hail as the primary threat. Should storms root atop the inversion hail to the size of golf balls could be expected but more likely perhaps is a few virga showers as skinny cape profiles will be subject to dry air entrainment limiting and updrafts potential to grow through the hail growth zone.

Similarly pessimistic about Sunday as the forcing will be weak and convective temperatures anywhere from 95-105. Hitting anything above 100 is far from a guarantee so best chances for storms will increase will eastward extend further away from the 850 thermal ridge. Should convective temperatures be reach surface based storms become likely with initially discrete airmass convection organizing into bowing clusters that track southeast. Winds up to 60 mph and hail to the size of golf balls are possible.

Our run of 90 degree days in July continues to end the month with 90s possible if not likely each day through next Saturday within the Red River Valley. Heat headlines have been posted through the next 2 days for much of the area with a an extreme heat warning in effect tomorrow for the central and southern valley as heat indices may locally climb as high as 110. Through the rest of the week the well mix boundary layer and warm temperatures will routinely lead to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and Min humidity around 30%. This will warrant at least marginal fire weather concerns most days given the state of seasonally dry to very fuels. Combine this with the potential for one or two days to see afternoon winds reaching 20+ mph and near critical conditions are possible. Rain looks to be a low probability once again through the coming week possibly further degrading/expanding the existing drought conditions across much of the area.