Grand Forks (FGF) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

Messages

Temperatures will run near normal through the weekend before warming up early next week.

Update

An area of low clouds spreading west in an area with easterly winds at 925 mb 5-10 knots. Clouds approaching BDE, expectation is that may may move west a bit more then breakup after sunrise. Few clouds also noted on the west side of the Lower and Upper Red Lakes due to a light east wind in the boundary layer over a warmer lake water. Otherwise skies clear and calm conditions RRV and NW MN and WC MN with temperatures in the clear and calm areas down into the 12-15F range. Definitely the coldest morning of the fall season.

Discussion

Upper ridging starts to nudge into the Western Plains tonight, arriving fully over the forecast area by Saturday. Surface high pressure tonight will bring light winds and good radiational cooling, but think there will be more cloud cover than the model blends show. Have temperatures bottoming out in the teens still as there should be a sharp drop after sunset before clouds fill back in. temperatures tomorrow will be similar today and near seasonal averages. Upper ridging will continue through the weekend and into early next week, with pretty good agreement from the ensemble members on temperatures warming back up above normal. Highs look to be back up into the 50s by Monday.

Still some variation in the details with how the upper ridge breaks down and split flow trough comes into the Plains. Some of the clusters track the low along the Canadian border, while other solutions start the system out over the Central Plains. Probabilities of measurable precipitation are decent, around 40 percent, so at least some areas will get some moisture. With the the European model EFI still showing a signal for warmth, most likely form of precipitation will be rain.