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Northwest flow regime with occasional chances for rain but low confidence in convective details
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Northwest flow regime with occasional chances for rain but low confidence in convective details
The Great Lakes region remains in between an upper high across the western CONUS and longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS with occasional shortwave troughs passing through and bringing the chance for some much-needed rain.
A weakening shortwave trough moving through early this morning has yet to initiate any showers, which is not surprising given limited moisture and lift. Isolated showers are possible through the afternoon.
Still low confidence in the details of how things play out tonight through MOnday night in terms of organized convection, but instability and shear are sufficient for a slow-moving front and weak midlevel vorticity max to focus convection across Minnesota and into Wisconsin this afternoon which eventually moves southeast across Lake Michigan and perhaps western Lower Michigan.
The hi-res convective allowing models take the bulk of the storms west of our forecast area, but there is a chance an MCS could impinge on the western or southwest zones late tonight or early Monday morning. Additional convection is possible across the rest of the forecast area during Monday and Monday night as the front pushes south.
The front moves through by Tuesday with fair weather for mid to late week before the longwave upper trough amplifies with a cold front bringing another chance of rain by next weekend.
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