What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Medford (MFR) · issued Friday, September 11 at 4:34 AM PDT.
Revised in 3 passages since the 2:27 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Gusty winds and low daytime humidities will bring elevated fire weather conditions east of the Cascades this afternoon and early this evening.
Increasing chances of showers/light precipitation on Saturday, highest north of OR/CA border and along/west of Cascades. 15-25% for thunderstorms from the coast to the Cascades. Chances for showers decrease on Sunday.
Significantly cooler Saturday and Sunday, with high temperatures around 10-15 degrees below normal.
Strong, gusty winds expected east of Cascades and in the Shasta Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
A gradual warming trend is expected next week.
Discussion
A broad upper level trough is over the region. This will result in temperature trending cooler today with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s for most inland valleys. Gusty winds and dry daytime humidities are expected this afternoon and evening for areas east of the Cascades, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions.
A low pressure will shift south along the Pacific Northwest coast late today and tonight. This low will gradually move inland Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This pattern will bring much cooler temperatures (10-15 degrees below normal) to the area on Saturday and Sunday. Showers are expected to develop Saturday and Saturday night. The best chances for showers (50-90%) are expected on Saturday evening, highest for areas from the Southern Oregon Cascades west but also extending into portions of Klamath and Lake counties. Lower chances for showers (10-40%) are expected across Northern California. As the low moves inland, instability will increase during the day Saturday. Models and guidance continue to indicate a low (15-20%) chance for thunderstorms over the coast waters, along the coast and into Douglas County on Saturday. For areas east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley, strong gusty winds are expected Saturday afternoon/evening with gusts of around 30 to 40 mph. Despite these winds, fire weather concerns will be mitigated by increasing daytime humidities on Saturday.
This low shifts east of the area on Sunday and conditions will trend drier. However, current models and ensembles support low chances for light showers (15-35%) Sunday morning, especially across the Southern Oregon Cascades and coastal mountains. Well below normal temperatures will continue through Sunday, and we'll need to monitor the potential for frost/freeze products for portions of the East Side Sunday morning and again, Monday morning. Lingering cloud cover may limit areas of frost/freeze on Sunday morning. Then, with clearing skies Sunday night and continued cold air in place, chances for frost and freeze increase for valleys east of the Cascades. Temperatures trend warmer Monday through late next week with highs expected to be near to above normal by mid week.
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