Discussion
Hot, dry, and smoky conditions continue through this week.
Even hotter, drier, and windy conditions to end next week.
Potential cool down to near average temperatures next weekend, though it remains dry.
Our current pattern of high pressure ridge to our east and the Northern Rockies under southwest flow will remain unchanged for the time being. Expect very warm and dry days, unstable atmosphere, and smokey conditions. Our region looks to be cut off from monsoonal flow but isolated thunderstorms during the afternoons in southwest MT and Lemhi County ID will be possible but low probability.
The biggest concern in the short term will be degrading air quality from local and regional fires. Each overnight smoke will likely filter into valleys, then during the afternoon solar heating will destabilize the atmosphere allowing for some ventilation. Unfortunately, smoke inherently stabilizes the atmosphere by blocking solar energy and limiting surface heating. Without a cold front to scour out valleys, eventually smoke will increase to the point of stabilizing valleys, degrading visibility and air quality. High resolution guidance would suggest northwest and west-central MT will be among the first valleys for this to occur over the next few days.
Relief? The models are notorious for trying to breakdown high pressure ridges too quickly. Current models would suggest successive short waves and eventually ejection of the main Pacific low pressure trough flattening the ridge, could happen as early as Friday/ Saturday. Last night I wrote Thursday/ Friday, so the models are already trying to delay ridge breakdown.