Plaincast

Messages

Scattered convection may re-develop later tonight. Severe storms are not expected.

Hot and humid conditions will resume Sunday through Tuesday with heat indices in the 100s most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. It is becoming increasingly likely that a Heat Advisory will be needed on Monday, and perhaps again on Tuesday. Cooler and less humid air will arrive by Wednesday and linger through next weekend.

There are generally low rain and storm chances Sunday night and Monday, but some isolated spots could still get a downpour. Rain chances the remainder of the week are very low.

Short Term

(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

After a generally quiet evening of radar activity, a few cells are starting to develop near the TN/KY line, and the the high-res rapid-refresh model suggests that additional development is likely during the overnight period. We can't completely rule out additional storms on Sunday, but the the high-res rapid-refresh model has been quite inconsistent from run-to-run. At this time, we have low chance of rain in the grids for some areas mainly east of I-65 for tomorrow, but this could also change in favor of more widespread development. Forecast models do hint at MCS remnants impacting the mid state on Monday, and the the blend-of-models forecast output is also showing something curious. For example, for BNA, the 19Z the blend-of-models forecast is showing a 38% chance of measurable rainfall from 00Z Monday until 00Z Tuesday, but also a 16% chance of 1"+, a 13% chance of 2"+ and a 9% chance of 3"+. The best way to interpret this is simply to say that there are generally low chance of rain for Sunday night and especially Monday, but impacted areas could also see isolated very heavy rainfall. In the meantime, a saturated air mass has come back to us. The 00Z sounding from OHX shows a SBCAPE of 2,213 J/kg (despite a stable layer below 850 mb), a Lifted Index of -5, and near-record Precipitable Water of 2.14". Indeed, the heat and humidity will return on Sunday, with heat indices likely reaching the low 100s many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. Monday and Tuesday look to be even hotter, and it is becoming increasingly likely that a Heat Advisory will be needed for Monday and perhaps again Tuesday. The good news is that Middle Tennessee isn't outlooked for severe storms for the foreseeable future, and the WPC's excessive rainfall outlooks do not include the mid state after tonight.

Long Term

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Confidence is growing that we will enjoy a frontal passage late Tuesday or Tuesday evening that will allow drier, cooler air to spread into the mid state. This would bring an end to the threat of excessive heat, and also suppress rain chances for the remainder of the week. Near normal temperatures are likely to last through next weekend, while rain and storm chances look to increase by next weekend as a low pressure system tracks along the Gulf Coast and spreads deeper moisture into Middle Tennessee.