Oklahoma City (OUN) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

Messages

Temperatures rebound today with dry conditions.

Chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, especially across northern Oklahoma.

Hot, above-normal temperatures are expected for the weekend into early next week.

Short Term

(Through Friday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning across southeast Oklahoma on the western periphery of isentropic ascent.

Otherwise, light and variable winds are ongoing this morning in the wake of yesterdays cold front that is currently dissipating (frontolysis). With the light winds, clearing skies, boundary layer humidity near 100%, and yesterdays rainfall, some fog has developed this morning. Fog will likely continue to develop-- especially across locations that received appreciable rainfall yesterday (i.e., north central Oklahoma and south central Oklahoma).

Abundant sunshine, a return to southerly winds, and the eastward expansion of a low-level thermal ridge back into the Southern Plains will result in a return to hotter weather this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s (north central Oklahoma) to the near 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas). These temperatures are 5 to 10 deg F above normal for mid-September.

Short Term

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The subtropical ridge moves eastward in tandem with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge across the Southern Plains for the upcoming weekend, which will generally result in hotter weather Saturday and Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed both days with widespread triple digit heat indices likely.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are forecast to develop across Central Plains both Friday night into Saturday morning and Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is a chance the remnants of one of these complexes may approach north central Oklahoma Saturday morning around the northeast periphery of the subtropical ridge. If this occurs, additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon along any remnant mesoscale features (i.e., outflow boundary or mesoscale convective vortex [MCV]). There is less of a chance a complex will move into the area Sunday morning with the subtropical ridge overhead.

Long Term

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The subtropical ridge will continue to move eastward toward the southeast United States for next week. The Southern Plains will be on the western periphery of the ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge remaining in place. As a result, above-normal temperatures are likely with high temperatures in the 90s to mid 100s deg F. Probabilistic guidance indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday, which indicates high confidence of above-normal temperatures (e.g., the 10th percentile is above- normal).

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday afternoon with a strengthening surface pressure gradient resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to south to southwest flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge), where there will be occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms from remnant convection or nearby frontal boundaries. Currently, the highest chance of this occurring is around midweek (Tuesday and Wednesday).