What the forecast actually says
Loading…
Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 3 passages since the 1:58 AM discussion. See every revision.
Unusually warm temperatures continue today, with highs ranging from 8 to 12 degrees above average. A gradual cooling trend will follow for Sunday through Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing temperatures around 5 degrees above average for midweek. The upper level ridge moves back west towards Las Vegas and restrengthens in the latter half of the week. There is increasing confidence that this setup could provide the hottest temperatures of the Summer thus far.
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE. SAN DIEGO. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
Latest radar imagery reveals that there are some showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms moving up over northern Baja California at this hour, with a few of these showers beginning to move over portions of SE San Diego County. This will continue to move up from the south in the form of a lot of altocumulus and altostratus, with as few showers, and some of these may make it through the drier PBL and reach the ground. With this in mind, the marine layer has been disrupted a bit with the presence of the mid-level clouds passing overhead. Any bases that have struggled to form have generally been based around 1000-1500 above sea level. There may also be some rain drops felt, even through the low level clouds, due to the convective subtropical mid-level clouds moving overhead.
When analyzing the near-storm environment on SPC, it is evident that the majority significant instability remains confined over the deserts, with the highest values of MUCAPE (although it is well- capped). Since there is some elevated instability associated with this monsoonal wave as it transitions up over San Diego County this morning, it may likely produce a few rain showers, and possibly even a rumble of thunder can he heard all the way down to the coastal areas. Depending on how much it clears out by later this morning will determine whether or not it will warm enough to get thunderstorm development over our mountains by later this afternoon. As this moisture moves out by tomorrow with more southwesterly flow predominantly taking over in the mid levels, it will allow for more drier conditions to settle back in for tomorrow with likely little to no cloud development over the mountains for Monday.
From tuesday into Wednesday, the ridge will weaken slightly a shift a little further eastward with slightly better troughing influence upstream which will allow for temperatures to be slightly cooler, and only around 5 degrees above the seasonal average by Wednesday. The drier air advection in the mid levels out of the southwest will help to hinder any afternoon monsoonal development. Then, as the ridge begins to build a bit and expand/retrograde back towards the west beginning Thursday, it will allow for temperatures to gradually warm again up to around 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal average, especially by Friday. There will also be an influx of mid-level moisture again out of the southeast as these originate over Arizona and Sonora, Mexico, and then transition over our region. The ridge will begin to slowly weaken and flatten a bit going into Saturday, translating to only slightly cooler temperatures to begin the following weekend, although still quite hot. even for summertime.
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. The full Plaincast experience — plain-English summaries beside the annotated original, with the forecast changelog — loads automatically with JavaScript, or open the interactive edition.