What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Tulsa (TSA) · issued Friday, September 11 at 7:44 AM CDT.
Revised in 6 passages since the 6:30 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Rain/storm chances wind down this morning and low chances will persist in the terrain of NW AR this afternoon. Afternoon highs will be warmer than yesterday but substantially cooler than the intense heat that was observed earlier in the week. Unseasonably hot temperatures return over the weekend through next week.
Thunderstorm chances return Saturday however confidence is low in exact placement and coverage.
While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 24 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds.
Update
WV imagery this morning clearly delineates a shortwave trough aloft over the region moving slowly east. At the surface, the outflow/front that pushed through with the storms yesterday has stalled from central AR to extreme SE OK into NE TX.
The area of rain and storms will continue east this morning in tandem with the upper trough. The forecast was updated to wind down chance of rain through the morning. CAMs show low afternoon shower/storm potential in the terrain of NW AR and to the south of the forecast area close to the boundary, which is not expected to move much today. Since we stay on the north or cooler side of this boundary today, afternoon highs will not get as hot as what was observed earlier this week, though they will be warmer than yesterday with more sun.
Short Term
(Through Friday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed late this evening across parts of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in response to the mid level wave across the area. CAMs continue to advertise some increase in coverage after midnight, particularly across western Arkansas, although the overall coverage and intensity appear to be less than earlier thought. One noticeable forecast change with this package has been to decrease the forecast rainfall using the most recent short-term blended guidance. The potential for additional showers and thunderstorms during the day will continue in this same area, although the western edge will shift eastward with time.
Given the rains seen earlier today and some clearing across parts of northeast Oklahoma north of I-44, patchy fog development will be possible toward daybreak. A mention has been added to the forecast through mid morning.
Temperatures will remain near to maybe a degree or two above normal, depending on location, and likely slightly cooler than the the blend-of-models forecast initialization, especially in north and eastern parts of the forecast area. Highs for Friday have been nudged closer to the short-term blend.
Long Term
(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Most of the Friday night period should be dry, although a modest increase in shower and thunderstorm potential exists for parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas toward daybreak Saturday given the amount of low level warm advection. This potential will continue through the day, although uncertainty remains high regarding coverage and location of the greatest potential. Forecast chance of rain on Saturday reflect a broadbrushed version of a blend between the the blend-of-models forecast and short-term blend. The highs for Saturday have been left alone from the the blend-of-models forecast given the uncertainty regarding how much rain and convective cloud cover will be around during the day. Heat headlines will need to at least be considered for parts of the area Saturday.
Another batch of showers and thunderstorms will approach the Kansas border from the north Saturday night into early Sunday, but confidence is higher that this will not move too far south into the area given the building upper level high. Highs on Sunday and again on Monday are likely to be pushing triple digits across a good chunk of the area. The the blend-of-models forecast initialization was largely accepted for highs both days, although some targeted increases were applied to account for recent low biases at a few sites. Heat headlines will likely be needed both days. Fire weather concerns will increase once again on Sunday and especially on Monday due to the return of gusty southerly winds.
Unseasonably hot conditions will extend through at least the middle of next week, with only low chances for showers and thunderstorms during the period, focused across areas near the Kansas border and the northern edge of the upper high. Uncertainty increases thereafter, with continued signs of another front approaching the area late week into next weekend. The most recent data indicates a later possible passage of this front than at this same time yesterday.
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