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Heat Advisory in effect for the Coastal Plains and portions of the Rio Grande Plains today from noon to 7 PM.
Hot and dry weather is expected through the end of July.
Rising temperatures this week may lead to increasing heat risks.
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 11 passages since the 6:07 PM discussion. See every revision.
Short Term
(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Today will offer another round of hot and sunny weather. Highs today are forecast to be near to just over 100 for most of South Central Texas. The slightly warmer air temperatures paired with dew points in the 60s to low 70s will bring the potential for afternoon heat indices to reach the 108F to 110F range over the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande Plains. A Heat Advisory is in effect between noon and 7 PM today for these areas. Heat indices elsewhere are expected to remain just under advisory criteria, but it will still be hot nonetheless. Stay cool and hydrated and limit strenuous activities during the afternoon.
With very similar conditions expected Wednesday, a Heat Advisory may again be issued for the same or similar areas if the day progresses as forecast. Air temperatures for most of South Central Texas will again straddle or top the 100F mark with peak heat indices above 105F commonplace particularly over the Coastal and Rio Grande Plains.
Long Term
(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The heat will continue this week. Ensembles show a decreasing trend in daytime 850mb dew points over the second half of the week, a signal of moisture mixing out more. However, air temperatures also trend upwards during the same period, so maximum daily heat indices may continue to stay above 105F for some areas. Overnight temperatures are also expected to also rise slightly towards the end of the week, with the hottest areas (urban I-35 corridor and the lower plains) not spending much time below 80F.
Entering the weekend, the large subtropical ridge responsible for shaping the hot and dry weather this week will shift west. The recent model trend has moved farther west with some ensemble means placing the core of the ridge as far west as Arizona/Nevada by Saturday. Northerly flow on the ridge's eastern flanks could bring a weak front into our area Saturday or Sunday. This brings a potential for isolated rains over the weekend. Rain amounts at this range don't look especially impressive given that the front is favored to continue south at a steady pace, but a few thunderstorms are possible. A few degrees of cooling are possible early next week, an outcome slightly more favored by the EPS/AIFS, but the overall picture stays hot as is typical for this time of year.
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