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What is an Area Forecast Discussion?

Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth (FWD) · issued Monday, July 27 at 5:12 AM CDT.

Revised in 3 passages since the 12:30 AM discussion. See every revision.

Messages

A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM tonight for most of North Texas and eastern Central Texas for heat indices up to around 106.

Hot and rain-free weather will persist through the upcoming week with little relief in sight.

Short Term

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Continued southerly winds and subsident air from the lingering upper-level southern CONUS ridge will keep today hot and humid. Under mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs will be able to peak in the upper 90s to around 103 across much of North Texas, with Central Texas rising up into the mid 90s to around 100. The base the blend-of-models forecast dewpoints are a bit too high during the afternoon hours, as actual observations show that we mix out a bit more, so have lowered dewpoints a bit. Even with lowered dewpoints, modest humidity will push afternoon heat indices into the upper 90s to around 106 degrees, with much of North Texas and eastern Central Texas having the higher heat indices. The current Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. Overnight, expect temperatures to only bottom out in the mid 70s to low 80s, making for a warm and humid start to Tuesday.

Long Term

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Over the next several days, the upper-level ridge will remain planted across much of the western and Central CONUS, with a trough setting up across the eastern CONUS coast. In response, expect continued hot and dry weather across the region. Afternoon highs through this week will peak in the upper 90s to around 102-104. With no real pattern shift expected until the end of the week into this upcoming weekend, have also lowered dewpoints each afternoon through Thursday to account for the better afternoon mixing. Daily peak heat indices will range from the upper 90s to around 106-107, meaning Heat Advisories will likely continue for portions of the region each day. Make sure to continue to take precautions against the heat, and know the signs of heat illness.

Guidance continues to show the eastern CONUS trough digging further to the southwest late this week into the weekend, which will shunt the upper-level ridge back towards the Desert Southwest. This will place North and Central Texas in between the two upper-level features, with north-northwest flow aloft overtop. Both the deterministic long-range guidance and the ensembles show a disturbance pushing a "cold" front south through the region on Saturday, which would aid in shaving a few degrees off of afternoon highs. At this time, any precipitation looks to mainly be to our south and east. With it being a bit of a ways out, there is still uncertainty on the exact temperatures and location of any precipitation, so make sure to stay up to date with the forecast as we head through the week.

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