Dallas/Fort Worth (FWD) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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Mostly clear skies and near normal temperatures (highs in the 60s and low-70s) are expected Friday.

A weekend disturbance will bring widespread rain (90-100% chance) and well below normal temperatures (highs in the upper-40s and 50s).

Near to below normal temperatures (highs 50s and 60s) are expected next week through Wednesday.

Short Term

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1252 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Cool and tranquil fall weather is expected today as a shortwave ridge traverses the Central and South Great Plains. Further west, a shortwave trough will quickly move from the California/Baja West Coast into the southern Rockies. Weak synoptic scale subsidence and dry air aloft associated with the passing ridge should keep the region dry with plentiful sunshine. At the surface, a back-door cold front will have pushed through the region from the northeast Thursday night into Friday morning bringing light northeast winds of 5-10 mph and much more seasonal temperatures than what has been observed earlier this week. Highs will range from the mid-60s near the Red River to the low and mid-70s in Central Texas. By the end of the day Friday, high clouds may begin to stream in from the west as the West Coast trough approaches the Plains.

By Saturday, a negatively tilted trough will extend from West Texas northwestward into the Pacific Northwest. As such, general troughing will become the predominant upper-level flow regime over the Central CONUS with an embedded shortwave/mid-level vort max in the Central Rockies. This disturbance will move southeast towards the South Plains throughout the day on Saturday. As such, increasing forcing for ascent and moisture return in advance of this storm will result in increasing cloudiness and the development of rain showers by the evening. Scattered showers (40-60% chance) are expected west of US-281 by the end of the day Saturday with more isolated coverage (20-30% chance) between US-281 and the I-35 corridor. Widespread cloud cover along with increasing showers from west to east will result in highs Saturday being near to slightly below average (highs in the 60s).

Long Term

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1252 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

As the aforementioned shortwave ejects out of the Central Rockies and digs southeastward into the southern Plains, a surface low should develop in the Panhandle and track towards the south. A sharpening stationary front will drape across the region from Northwest Texas into East Texas as warm advection in Central Texas pushes against stubborn northeasterly winds across much of North Texas. Along and behind this boundary (generally north of a Cisco-Waco-Centerville line) widespread cloud cover and rain showers (90-100% chance) will keep temperatures well below normal on Sunday as highs will range from the upper-40s to the mid-50s. South of this line across the rest of Central Texas, there may be a few hours Sunday afternoon (60-70% chance) where clouds and rain showers become more scattered and allow highs to warm into the lower-60s. This will be relatively shortlived while the surface low glances by the region to the west allowing surface winds to briefly shift out of the WSW. As this low pushes south into the Hill Country, a cold front will be quick to follow allowing cloudy skies and numerous rain showers to fill in across the rest of Central Texas. All in all, Sunday is looking to be the first cloudy, cold, and rain day of the fall.

Sunday night into Monday, the primary upper-level disturbance will continue moving east from the southern Plains into the southern Mississippi River Valley. As higher heights build in from the west, increasing subsidence aloft will allow dry air to return to the mid and upper-levels. However, substantial moisture trapped by the post-frontal inversion and modest isentropic ascent will remain in the lower levels. Medium range forecast soundings show this post-frontal saturated layer up to ~800 hPa before giving way to the drier air aloft. With the moisture and isentropic lift expected, this will be more than sufficient to bring about one more day of widespread light precipitation across North and Central Texas. As such, Monday will likely be another cold, cloudy and dreary day. Current the blend-of-models forecast guidance doesn't have any precipitation chances and seems to be clearing clouds out too quickly. Have introduced some low precipitation chances (10-30%) throughout the day on Monday to account for the lingering sprinkles/drizzle/light rain. Wouldn't be surprised if the current the blend-of-models forecast forecast highs (mid and upper-50s) are 5-10 degrees too warm either.

By Tuesday the upper-level flow pattern will feature a Central CONUS trough and a deep longwave over the West Coast. Synoptic scale subsidence in association with this ridge along with high pressure at the surface will result in a more mild day on Tuesday with scattered clouds and slightly below normal temperatures ranging from the mid-50s to the mid-60s. The cooler highs are expected west of the I-35 corridor where morning cloud cover looks to linger longer.

By Wednesday/Thursday, the West Coast trough will approach the Great Plains with upper-level flow strengthening and becoming increasingly southwesterly. Medium range guidance diverges in how far south the trough and its associated lift will extend with some models (e.g. the the European model) depicting scattered rain showers returning to the region by Thursday, and other models (e.g. the the American global model) keeping next week's storm track (and attendant rain chances) north of North and Central Texas. Will refrain from further discussion until confidence increases, and will leave 10-30% chance of rain area-wide Wednesday night into Thursday for the time being.