Plaincast

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Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. Locally heavy rain may lead to isolated instances of urban or poor drainage flooding.

Heat index values over 100 degrees will continue through the upcoming work week.

Short Term

(Today through Monday) Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A pattern shift is expected today which will last into much of the next week. Surface high pressure over the north-central Gulf early this morning will slide to the southern Gulf throughout the day. Meanwhile, a surface front remains nearly stalled over the SE US with strong high pressure over the central Atlantic. At the upper levels, ridging remains over the western US and a longwave trough remains over the northeast US. Locally, our low and mid level flow will become more westerly today and Monday. This will focus the bulk of the convection over inland areas and towards the east coast metro. A river of enhanced moisture squeezed between the surface front and the strong high over the Atlantic will stretch back across FL. Forecast soundings show deep moisture throughout the column with precipitable water values of 2.1-2.3 inches. Convection today and again on Monday will be maximized during the afternoon and early evening hours. With high rainfall rates expected and slow storm motions, will continue to be on the watch for isolated instances of urban and poor drainage flooding. Overnight tonight, convection will dissipate with just some widely scattered coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms expected.

High temperatures today and Monday will be in the lower 90s. The heat combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in max heat indices both days in the 105-110 range. However, with the higher than average chance of rain and timing of convection beginning early in the afternoon, it'll be difficult to achieve advisory heat indices for at least a couple hours, therefore will hold off on headlines. Regardless though, anyone with outdoor plans should remain hydrated and take plenty of breaks to protect themselves from the heat. Overnight low temperatures tonight will range from the middle 70s over inland areas, to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

Long Term

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The unsettled pattern will remain across South FL for the remainder of the upcoming work week. A broad upper level trough will remain over New England and the Mid Atlantic, with surface and upper level high pressure over the central Atlantic. The trough will likely deepen across the eastern US as the week progresses as the high in the Atlantic noses to the west. The area of enhanced moisture is expected to remain across South FL for much of the week. With the low/mid level flow remaining westerly, this will result in above average chance of rain across the east coast metro each day. While the rainfall will be much appreciated given the ongoing drought, will need to be on guard for the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding each day across the metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and low temperatures ranging from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.