New York (OKX) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service New York (OKX) · issued Friday, November 13 at 6:51 AM EST.

Revised in 5 passages since the 5:43 AM discussion. See every revision.

What has changed

Gale Warnings converted to Small Craft Advisories on the non ocean waters.

Messages

Periods of light to moderate rain persist through this afternoon. No significant impacts expected.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in vulnerable locations along the Long Island south shore during today's daytime high tide cycle.

An extended stretch of dry weather looks to return this weekend and continue through much of next week.

Discussion

.KEY MESSAGE 1. Low pressure just southeast of Long Island slowly pulls east and further offshore into tonight as the parent upper low trails behind it.

Periods of light to moderate rain will continue to fall through the afternoon, before tapering everywhere by the evening. The risk for heavier downpours that could lead to any additional flood threat has ended. Additional expected rainfall will be light, generally between a quarter and half inch. The rain may mix with or transition to wet snow across the hills well north and west of NYC. A light coating on colder surfaces is possible in these areas.

.KEY MESSAGE 2. The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of low pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast should cause another round of minor coastal flooding along the Long Island south shore during today's daytime high tide cycle. Isolated moderate coastal flooding is possible as well. Coastal flood advisories are in effect for the south shore of Nassau and Suffolk. N flow should prevent water levels from reaching threshold elsewhere.

Additionally, issued coastal flood statements for the NYC and NJ metro areas as well as southern Fairfield where new guidance was indicating isolated minor coastal flooding possible with up to a half foot of inundation.

Blend of bias corrected NYHOPS and P-ETSS 50th percentiles used for surge.

.KEY MESSAGE 3. An extended stretch of dry weather develops this weekend as a sprawling area of high pressure gradually builds to the west into early next week, then settles over the area mid to late next week.

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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub